
Global Logistics Predictions in 2025
Introduction
The world of global trade and supply chain management is evolving rapidly, influenced by shifts in policy, technology, and labor dynamics. Christopher Wall, Co-Founder and CEO of Zeus Logics, shared his expertise on these critical topics during a recent Supply Chain Careers Podcast. This article captures the essence of Wall’s insights, exploring the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead as we approach 2025 under a new U.S. administration. From tariffs to automation, and labor markets to geopolitical shifts, Wall provides a roadmap for navigating the complexities of global trade.
A Career Rooted in Supply Chain Innovation
Wall’s journey into supply chain management began in 2007, during his time as a principal technology investor. His interest was piqued while analyzing a 3PL (third-party logistics provider) company. Witnessing the outdated technologies that dominated the industry, he became passionate about modernizing supply chain operations. By 2021, Wall and his team at Zeus Logics were addressing critical gaps in the industry, from forced labor compliance to anti-dumping regulations, leveraging standardized customs data to improve supply chain visibility.
The Lasting Impact of Policy Shifts
Discussing the Trump administration’s first term, Wall highlighted its significant effects on global trade. Between 2017 and 2021, tariffs and trade restrictions reshaped supply chains, aiming to reduce dependence on China and bring manufacturing closer to the U.S. These policies, he noted, continued under the Biden administration, reflecting bipartisan agreement on reducing overreliance on a single supplier.
Looking ahead to Trump’s second term, Wall anticipates an acceleration of tariff implementation. With legal frameworks for imposing tariffs now firmly established, new policies could be enacted swiftly, creating ripple effects across industries. Tariffs will likely be used strategically as both a carrot and stick to influence trade relationships with allies and competitors.
Regulatory Challenges: Forced Labor and De Minimis Imports
The podcast delved into two key regulatory areas:
Forced Labor Compliance
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), enacted in 2021, introduced stringent requirements for tracing supply chains to ensure compliance. Wall explained how the law assumes any goods produced in Xinjiang, China, involve forced labor unless proven otherwise. This has intensified the need for traceability and compliance software, driving demand for advanced supply chain visibility solutions.
De Minimis Imports
Wall also touched on the de minimis rule, which allows goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. While originally designed to facilitate low-value trade, this loophole has been exploited by companies like Shein and Temu to bypass tariffs. With over 1.2 billion packages entering the U.S. annually under this rule, Wall predicts changes to de minimis thresholds to curb abuse and generate significant revenue.
The Rising Role of Labor and Automation
Wall provided a thought-provoking analysis of labor market dynamics. With aging workforces and declining birth rates, certain skill sets—particularly in logistics, compliance, and procurement—are in higher demand. However, the industry faces a significant skills gap, particularly in areas like strategic sourcing and supply chain analytics. Wall emphasized the need for targeted training and upskilling programs to prepare workers for the complexities of modern supply chain roles.
The Impact of Automation
Automation is reshaping manufacturing and logistics, but it brings its own challenges. While robotics and AI improve efficiency, maintaining and programming these systems requires specialized skills. Wall noted that automation is capital-intensive but ultimately drives labor productivity and higher wages for skilled workers. He predicted that automation adoption would accelerate, especially as costs decrease and implementation becomes more seamless. Automation recruiters will play a large part in assisting with this adoption.
Geopolitical Realignments: Opportunities and Risks
As supply chains diversify away from China, neighboring regions like Mexico and Canada stand to benefit. Wall sees Mexico as a critical player in the U.S. supply chain ecosystem, despite challenges such as drug trafficking and labor issues. Canada’s integration with U.S. manufacturing also positions it as a reliable partner for future trade agreements.
Wall emphasized the importance of fostering resilient supply chains that balance diversification with cost efficiency. He pointed out that tariffs and other trade barriers could disrupt established supply chains, leading to higher prices for consumers and reshuffled trade relationships.
Preparing for the Future of Supply Chains
Wall concluded the discussion with advice for aspiring supply chain professionals. He underscored the importance of:
- Networking: Building connections early through platforms like LinkedIn.
- Soft Skills: Developing leadership and communication abilities alongside technical expertise.
- Mentorship: Seeking guidance from experienced professionals to navigate career challenges.
For those entering the field, Wall highlighted the growing opportunities in strategic sourcing, procurement, and compliance—roles that will be critical as global trade evolves.
Conclusion
Christopher Wall’s insights paint a vivid picture of the complexities shaping supply chains in 2025 and beyond. From policy shifts and labor dynamics to the rise of automation, the landscape is changing at an unprecedented pace. Businesses must adapt to regulatory pressures, diversify supply chains, and invest in technology and talent to remain competitive.
As we move forward, the lessons shared by Wall remind us of the interconnectedness of global trade. By understanding these dynamics and preparing for the challenges ahead, organizations and professionals can thrive in this ever-evolving industry.
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Christopher Wall Pod
[00:00:00] Rodney Apple: Like to welcome Chris Wall to the Supply Chain Careers podcast. Chris is the co founder and CEO of Zeus Logics. Chris, welcome to the show. Rodney, thanks for having me. We’re excited to have you on the program today. As a global trade and logistics expert we’re going to get into some predictions for 2025 in terms of policy changes under the new incoming administration Trump 2. [00:00:30] 0, as you called it. We’d like to start out though, with just learning more about you and your background. How did you get started with your. Supply chain career journey and could you maybe give our audience just the highlight reel of some of the key moves and transitions you had in your career that led you to where you’re at today as the the leader of zoos logics. [00:00:52] Chris Wall: Sure thing. So my first contact with the supply chain in any professional capacity happened in 2007, when I was working at an investment fund as their principal technology investor. In other words, it was my job to analyze technology for investing into those companies based on technological assets or advantages. [00:01:15] And I was sent to go take a look at what I was told was a trucking company, but was in fact a 3PL. That 3PL, we made an investment into in 2007 and like a great many logistics companies in 2009 they were in need of some TLC. We went in gave them the TLC took a look and got a crash course from the CEO of that company. [00:01:37] In what it was to really manage logistics business in the 3PL on a day to day basis, but coming out of that, I took away that you had an enormously complex chunk of the economy that was being run on some very old ideas. Customs declarations are some of the oldest documents that exist today bills of lading or concepts that go back. [00:01:59] Thousands of years, and there’s been a lot of technological evolution in other aspects of business, but certainly when I started really thinking about this in the fall 2012 to 2015, there had been relatively little attention paid to new technology development for supply chain management, especially when it came to helping small and medium sized businesses. [00:02:23] And so I got into that from that angle, became fascinated with all the opportunities, and then set out on a quest to find the Holy Grail. And that was standardized information about what’s happening in the supply chain. If you’re going to build software and try and build systems that are going to organize things, you need a standardized data set so you can compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges to grapes. [00:02:47] We looked for quite a while and eventually one of my co founders, Connie Golden, identified that customs data is a place in which you have massive standardization. And sure enough, customs data is in part tax collection information and the government makes sure that information is collected, stored and reported in a very standardized way. [00:03:05] We started looking into custom services, opened up a customs brokerage as R& D and then built software to serve the customs brokerage and realize that there was a whole bunch of need outside of customs brokerage in supply chain management and visibility. And starting in 2021 realized there was an acute need for compliance software related to forced labor, but also anti dumping, countervailing all those cases and customs where you need to really understand your supply chain in order to comply. [00:03:37] Rodney Apple: Wonderful. Thank you for that introduction. Let’s go ahead and get into our topics here. And maybe we go back in history a bit taking a look at the Trump 1. 0. So that the 1st term, right? It’s been, roughly 4 years since he vacated the 1st term. What has been some of the lasting impacts on his policies as it relates to international trade? [00:03:59] Chris Wall: If we look back from the early 90s until 2017, there was a pretty much unabated increase in globalization. Supply chains were diversified across the globe. Arguably, supply chains were diversified from the globe into China, which isn’t exactly diversification that people were necessarily hoping for. [00:04:20] And you had this course that seemed to be like an unstoppable tide. Then in 2017, the arguably certainly from Donald Trump’s perspective. The benefit of those policies had come to an end, or you’ve seen the end of the benefit and the impact that maybe an overconcentration on 1 supplier had. And there was a desire to dial these policies back and. [00:04:47] Certainly impose tariffs, but ultimately have an aim of bringing back manufacturing close to the U. S. and at the very least reallocating it amongst a more broad group of nations. So there was not over reliance on 1 single primary supplier. In terms of what’s been lasting, if we compare 20 if we compare Donald Trump’s first presidency to Joe Biden’s presidency, we can see that very little actually changed. [00:05:14] One can imagine that no matter what political party you are from dialing back trade restrictions, if the trade restrictions were ostensibly put there in order to improve the U. S. job market and employment in the U. S. is just a non starter. For any politicians. So we saw very little change. [00:05:31] There was a softening of some stances, for example, vis a vis Europe. There was a rapprochement with Europe after there had been some rather hard talk on the part of the Trump administration. There was reorienting towards allies. Not only in Europe. And one of the changes that we saw was not really a reversal of the Trump legacy, but if anything, an increase in the hawkishness as relates to trade with impositions on further export controls. [00:05:58] Rodney Apple: That’s a great overview. As we get into we’re only 7, 8 weeks from inauguration. What are you thinking? I know it takes a while to enact certain policies. But then again, executive orders could be well prepared for day 1, right? But. What’s your what are your thoughts and predictions on the 2. 0 as it relates to customs objectives with taxes and regulations. [00:06:23] Chris Wall: You mentioned that it can take time to enact things. In the first Trump presidency, there was not the infrastructure to apply the supplemental Section 301 tariffs and that had to run through the court system. Those supplemental tariffs have since been been approved and there is now the legal foundation to apply those. [00:06:43] From day 1, without having to resort to any kind of executive decree, The president elect could put in new tariffs or raise the tariffs without fear there being some legal recourse, some kind of an overturn on appeal or that could still happen, but without there being a pushback on the legality of it. [00:07:04] That’s a change from last time. My forecast, in spite of all the bluster we’re hearing and. Tariffs being announced, I started out right after the election, assuming that there was going to be a negotiation period. We will ultimately see what really happens. It’s impossible to predict and my read on on Donald Trump is that he prides himself as a negotiator and one of the key aspects of negotiation is not to reveal your entire hand of cards. [00:07:34] It’s, he may be zigging because other people think he will zag or the inverse. Who knows exactly what’s going to happen. One thing that we can assume though is that there will be increased use of of tariffs. very much. In order to affect policy and to carrot and stick allied nations and nations that are on the fence or moving in a direction that the president deems are not favorable for the U. S. [00:08:00] Rodney Apple: Okay. Chris what about other types of regulations? We’ve got the weaker force labor prevention act as an example, anything to speak to there. [00:08:11] Chris Wall: Sure. U. F. L. P. A. Sometimes effectively known as you flip up. Is legislation that was enacted in 2021 and is based on on international labor organizations standards for what does and does not constitute forced labor. [00:08:30] So the rules are, in fact, quite old dating from early in the 20th century, and they are broadly applied as a standard for what does and does not constitute forced labor. What is a little bit different is that U. F. L. P. A. mandated that anything that was made in whole or in part was illegal to import into the U. S. And that there was what they call a rebuttable presumption. If something is made in the Uyghur autonomous region, or sunshine it is deemed to have been made with forced labor unless you can prove that it wasn’t. Anybody who’s ever tried to attend a debate class, or anything like that knows that proving a counterfactual is extremely difficult. [00:09:08] The, we are forced labor prevention act enacted in the in 2021 is legislation that essentially enforces certain parts of the international labor organizations at standards for forced labor. [00:09:21] What it does is it assumes that any labor, anything produced. in the Xinjiang region in whole or in part. So that doesn’t mean the finished good. That could mean a component, a subcomponent, or a raw material that was produced in Xinjiang. If it finds its way into a product that you attempt to import into the U. S., is deemed to have been made with forced labor. And this relates to to alleged camps in in China that are using the Uyghur Turkic Muslim population in forced labor. The Chinese say that they’re re education camps and poverty alleviation centers. The U. S. says that their concentration camps. I won’t delve into the factuality of all that, as I haven’t been there myself but this is what the law says, and it requires that you trace and identify all components coming in to the U. S. For certain items that may have been made in the weaker autonomous region, and that you make sure that they did not come from there. What does this mean? In practice? This means if you’re importing solar cells. Polysilicon one of the base elements of the glassy part of the cell are they’re being specifically enforced for for, call it Xinxiang content. [00:10:26] You need to prove that things did not come from Xinxiang, so you’ve got to trace everything from the beginning all the way through to the final good and show where it came from. The existence of this law and much harder stance seems to dovetail very well with other U. S. Foreign policy and U. S. policy in general. I think that we’re going to see continued enforcement of it and that we’re going to see an escalation if you look into other countries that are also implementing these kinds of supply chain laws, but I’m pretty sure that they’re relying on the U. S to be the bad cop. [00:11:03] And they’re going to come back and play a little bit. Good cop. Once the U. S. has essentially mandated That supply chains include this kind of traceability information, it’ll be much easier for others to do it. If you’re already doing it for the U. S. and you have to do it for Canada, it’s not all that big of a deal to add that function and once you build it up. [00:11:21][00:11:21] Rodney Apple: Chris, and thank you for covering that. What else though? [00:11:24] We know there could be and like you said earlier, it’s really hard to make a prediction. No one’s gonna show all their cards at this point, but if they’re feeling really aggressive, what other structural things could they go after and potentially change? [00:11:37] Chris Wall: Today, anybody can import goods valued at under 800 per day into the US without paying duties. This was originally intended to help the facilitation of of goods clearing customs and low value goods in an era where there was no capacity to engage in electronic collection of funds or electronic processing of customs documents. [00:12:01] The era where that was true is no longer here with us. Europe already imposes VAT payments essentially that their sales tax on 100% of items coming in. And in Europe you will get a $2 bill for VAT from your FedEx or DHL. And if you don’t pay it they will actually they take it quite seriously. [00:12:21] . So the technical and administrative reason for Dimi the de minimus doesn’t really exist anymore. On top of that, there’s been a massive surge in the number of imports using the de minimis rule from fast fashion providers in particular Cheyenne and Temu who are based out in China. [00:12:38] And there is a perception that they are skirting the intent of a law that was designed to facilitate trade, and instead they’re using the de minimis rule in order to just bypass the tariffs that are applicable. I suspect that we will see changes here relatively quickly as. There’s about 1. 2Billion packages that came in last year into the U. S. There’s a lot of revenue to be collected and applying those the inbound tariffs on those if you assume about 20 per shipment, you can very quickly get to see some pretty large revenue numbers coming in. Another thing that could be done are changes to how we treat nation’s most favored nation status and free trade agreements, as well as quotas, and how those will be treated and handled. [00:13:22] Currently people are benefiting from free trade agreements insofar as they meet certain content rules. So just give as an example, you might be making something in the Dominican Republic and under the tariff that has free trade access, you may need to have. 70 percent or 60 percent of the value added in the Dominican Republic. [00:13:45] To give an example goods imported from the Dominican Republic are typically eligible for zero, zero duties as they’re covered under a free trade agreement. There are requirements that say that you need to have at least 60 percent of the value added in the Dominican Republic for the merchandise to qualify. [00:14:02] That means that 40 percent of the rest of the value can come from somewhere else, including China. And there’s large supply chains established to benefit from this, and there’s organizations that do a lot of manufacturing and a lot of countries that. Bordering the U. S. are close to the U. S. and allies of the U. S. Mexico, Dominican Republic, a few other places that are coming in, and if these rules are changed, so that, for example, maybe you can only have 10 percent of the value of a could be made in China, rather than the current 40 percent that would radically impact a great number of suppliers and would be extremely disruptive. [00:14:36] You would probably see very quickly either massive jumping prices of. Ordinary household items that you’re buying every day and a scramble to either decide are they going to wait and see if these tariffs stick in 4 years or are the producers going to eat the costs right now and deal with reduced profit margins and higher costs because the supply chains may be inflexible. [00:15:00] Changes to free trade agreements changes to most favored nation status. Changes to a lot of these things could drastically affect the organization of how we get stuff into the country. [00:15:11] Rodney Apple: Yeah, that’s yeah, you hear the word tariffs all over the news, but what you just described, you don’t hear as much about that piece, or at least I haven’t. [00:15:17] Chris Wall: One thing, when you hear tariff, it’s tax. Tariff is a tax. It’s a tax. It’s a tax that isn’t collected by the IRS, but it is collected by customs. They’re often called import duties. A duty being a tax stamp, tax duties, et cetera. So you’ve got money that’s going to be added in so when you hear import duty, think tax. Import duties are a source of revenue collected by U. S. customs and tendered into the federal government. [00:15:47] If we’re going to start talking about tax reductions, maybe a reduction in the overall corporate tax rate, And continuing tax reductions for individuals, the revenue is going to have to be made up somewhere because the spending has not slowed down. The deficit is ballooning. We hit a trillion dollars in interest payments on our national debt this year. That money’s got to come from somewhere, or in the same way that like credit card companies do not like lending to people who are overextended and jack up their interest rates and eventually withdraw their credit. Our credit will get withdrawn too. So you got to come up with that money from somewhere else. [00:16:20] And if you, it’s like a tube of toothpaste. You squeeze in one place, it’s going to come out the other place. It’s going to come out the other end, right? So we are going to hear more and more about the tariffs. We are going to see some enactment of it. It is going to cost the U. S. consumer. It will also cost the Chinese suppliers. People scramble to get away from them. It will probably hurt them a little bit. It’s certain. We’re certainly going to feel in our pocketbooks. And I suspect that tariffs, the discussion of tariffs and discussions about the economics of enacting foreign trade through tariffs is going to be a pretty common discussion for the next few years. [00:16:56] And then once we settle into by the time we’re in year 2, the policy changes will likely have been made and we’ll be settling into something a little bit more long term. But, yeah, it’s going to be a big topic for a little while. [00:17:08] Rodney Apple: Chris we know the impacts, right? As it relates to prices going up, right? Consumers some of this will be passed through to consumers. Some could be absorbed along the supply chain. What about. When you think about, obviously, where our podcast focus on the people side of supply chain and talent in the workforce, what are some things that we could see on that angle? [00:17:30] From my vantage point, this is logical where. If prices go up for goods, common goods that we’re getting from our retail and e commerce favorite companies we shop from. If that’s going to cost more, it could tend to have a slowdown in terms of the aggregate demand. [00:17:46] And so that can slow down the economy if we’re not purchasing as many goods. What are your thoughts on that particular topic? And then as it relates to maybe the jobs and career side, I’d like to cover that as well. [00:17:59] Chris Wall: Sure, that’s actually why I was really excited to come and have this discussion with you is because of this particular angle. [00:18:05] As I see it, we’re undergoing a secular change in labor markets, the last one of which, the first one I know of, was the Black Death in Europe. It killed so many people that labor prices went up and labor was able to command a price. From the landowners that before they just hadn’t been able to, I think that the simultaneous aging out of a lot of the workforce declining fertility and declining birth rates and the new demand for a lot of services, job and care for older people means that people in certain kinds of service roles logistics compliance analysis, procurement are going to see increased demand for the skills that they have. I think for the people that you are working at placing, you’re at that nexus of employment and supply chain and the broader economy. For people in there, right now, I think it’s very bullish if you have the right skill set. [00:19:04] Looking into it, procurement is probably a place where there’ll be a fair amount more employment. No matter what you think about tariffs and their impact in the long term on pricing, one thing that they will definitely do is they will diversify U. S. purchasing and global purchasing out of China. [00:19:22] One reason that China is so dominant is the economy is a scale, and back when they had very low labor costs just made it such a no brainer. That and the fact that you could, you could, there was essentially zero environmental legislation and highly subsidized costs. It just made everything very cheap. [00:19:38] As. As the market is called, as the manufacturing market fragments, we will probably see an overall increase in prices, but we’ll have a more diversified supply base. And we may also see the economies from which we’re purchasing purchase more from us, which was always the goal of free trade. When David Ricardo articulated the benefits of free trade in this theory of comparative advantage in the 18th century, it wasn’t about one country doing all this buying and another country doing all the selling. [00:20:07] It was assumed that we both traded equally and that we’d both find the best things to trade. We may find a better economic situation as we diversify out of China into companies with whom there are more trading, sorry, countries with whom there are more trading opportunities and companies as well, obviously. [00:20:22] I suspect that procurement is going to become a bigger issues. You’re no longer going to be able to do 1 stop shopping. You’re going to need people who understand the US market and the Vietnamese market. You’re going to need to be able to to go and find people who are dealing with multiple jurisdictions who could understand sourcing a product, not just from China, as it’s been done for so many years, but maybe you’ve got a product that is partially made in China, partially made in India and partially made in Colombia that all converges on a on a manufacturing completion center in the Dominican Republic, and you need to understand how those pieces fit together. [00:20:55] I expect procurement, particularly with a view to complexity and data analysis will be very strong places. [00:21:01][00:21:01] Rodney Apple: I echo your your sentiments as it relates to strategic sourcing and procurement and we’ve seen a lot of activity. I would even say, going back to the Trump 1. 0 term and, we’ve got geopolitical tensions as well and various parts of the world. That are driving their diversification of the supply base. We’ve seen a big shift into Mexico. We haven’t really talked about Mexico. Anything you want to comment there and. [00:21:28] Obviously, we know China is invested heavily into Mexico as well, right? Anticipating these. These these exits of suppliers and so forth. So what are your thoughts there? [00:21:39] Chris Wall: So right after the election, I thought Mexico should be ecstatic as everything was leaning towards towards Mexico, really becoming a bigger part of the US supply chain. [00:21:51] And I still think long term, we bullish on this relationship. Amongst other things, our supply chains are so integrated. I don’t know how you make how you make a a RAM or an F 150 without transiting via Mexico and Canada at this point. It’s just, it’s the supply chain is so diverse and global. So global at this point, so intertwined between the USMCA countries, the former NAFTA bloc, that it’s probably likely to continue and be fairly strong. [00:22:22] Is there going to be a quick and easy fix to the problems that the president elect once solved? I suspect it’s a little bit tricky. I don’t think that the Mexican government is voluntarily letting the drug trafficking gangs run the business the way they do. I’m not sure it’s entirely under their control. [00:22:42] And while they might be able to firm up stuff at the border, it’s going to take a little while. When it comes to the fentanyl issues. We’ve been trying to, since 1971, we’ve been trying to get rid of get rid of drugs with the War on Drugs. It does not seem to have been terribly effective, but it’s been very expensive. [00:23:00] I’m not sure that the Mexicans will be able to effectively curb the flow of drugs inbound into the U. S. This might also be another item that looks back towards the Chinese who are supposedly allowing, although again, I’m not sure how much they’re. Really allowing the precursor chemicals to come in. [00:23:21] All of this, of course, which must be a little bit the Chinese must be a bit of a strange state is if you look back into their history, one of the reasons that China distrusted the West was that when we wanted to do business with them, we flooded their markets with opium and got a large percentage of their population addicted, which led to war. [00:23:41] At the very one would hope that they would empathize and that they would learn and they would treat us better than we treated them back in the day, but this is a problem that’s somewhat large and tractable. Is there going to be, will they just be able to shut down the border overnight? No, if we could shut down a border overnight, Trump would have done in his first term to begin with. [00:23:58] Is there going to have to be some kind of accommodation? Maybe. Do you impose the tariffs against against a future future behavior or a planned accord to engage in a certain amount of mitigation? Do you have a waiver for tariffs for goods that are moved across and have a certain labor rights? [00:24:16] Associated with them in line with the USMCA, maybe there’s a lot of things that could happen, but overall, if I’m Mexico, I’m pretty bullish. And if I’m an American manufacturer, I’m keeping an eye on things, but I’m not panicking quite yet. [00:24:31] Rodney Apple: What about our neighbors to the north in Canada? Any thoughts there? [00:24:36] Chris Wall: I don’t think that there, I think that their situation may be slightly better as the migrant issue isn’t as big. Thank you. And again, they’re just, they’re so integrated with the way we build and manufacture things at this point in time. We’re their largest trading partner, a very large trading partner for the U. S. And I don’t see how you manufacture a Ford F 150 or a Dodge Ram or any other number of complex goods in the U. S. Without having access to those markets. So I think there’ll be some kind of accommodation, which will be found. And the beginning of the negotiation may be the tariffs are now applied. [00:25:10] Now come and convince us that we should roll these back or create some mechanism for you to to not have your supply chains shut down or have massive increases in cost could be a decent negotiating position. [00:25:21] Rodney Apple: That’s a good point. And then when you think about right here in the USA, now, we have certainly seen a, I would say, a resurgence in manufacturing, especially in the Southeast, a lot of aerospace defense companies. You’ve got as you’ve been talking about the automotive suppliers manufacturers have been moving heavily into the Southeast. [00:25:42] We know that the overarching goal is more. Or more products made in the USA any comments there? Do you think we’ll see a drastic change? I can tell you from the labor side of the house. Those are some of our most challenging roles to work on. Are these, plant managers of these complex facilities you talked about the aging workforce from 50 years of outsourcing production to overseas, there’s been generations of parents like me telling our kids don’t go into manufacturing. It’s a dead end job. We’re, plants are shutting down all over the place. So we’re starting to see some of that come back. And we certainly know that Trump would like to see more of that come back. But any thoughts there, Chris? [00:26:25] Chris Wall: I think, the, there was this push of college for all, which was then taken to mean white collar jobs for all. [00:26:32] And you just don’t need all that much white collar work in a given economy. And today, if you go into, especially a major U S city, try and find a plumber, right? Figure out what that costs. It’s eye wateringly expensive. It’s lawyer like money, right? And electricians. Yeah, electricians all the building trades, if you have a master plumbers license in New York City, you have a nice yacht and these are sophisticated, refined businesses with lots of people captive license markets. [00:27:04] To get a little bit back to your job on a question on manufacturing. Will there be more manufacturing? And I go back and say we need the labor that can build it. The CHIPS Act wants to have a whole bunch of plants in the U. S., but when you listen to the people over at TSMC in Taiwan, they’re like, great, now where are we going to staff up the people to run this plant? [00:27:24] So there, there’s a large labor shortage of highly skilled labor that requires a lot of training, a lot of to be a technician. On an ultraviolet lithography machine. I don’t know if you need a PhD, but it’s not, you’re not going to be able to be a technician on 1 of those machines about a lot of technical training. [00:27:44] I think that there’s a training and an upskilling issue. It’s going to have to come in and that if we want the manufacturing jobs of the future that we really have to upskill the labor force to the point at which they can do something that’s highly technical. These days, somebody coming out who wants to get a reasonable job in the business area probably needs to learn basic computer programming skills, and it’s not as hard it’s not as hard as some people think it is, right? It’s the kind of thing that you would learn is a little bit like learning a foreign language or learning how to play a puzzle game a little bit to do study something like Python. For example, getting those skills up to the point at which you have people in the labor force that can run a modern factory is going to be a challenge. And I think that labor will probably be the biggest constraint because it’s certainly not money. It’s certainly not demand. It’s certainly not the lack of knowledge about how to build a factory. It’s the people to operate it. [00:28:36] Rodney Apple: And I think that leads and segues into another Question for you is the rise of automation it’s it’s solving those mundane high turnover jobs. We’ve had quite a few robotics folks on our podcast talking about that. And but, to your earlier point, these are technical jobs just to maintain the sophisticated robots. Now, they’re adding into on the software side. So what are your thoughts there? Do you see this trend continuing? Do you see it accelerating in terms of adoption? Now that we’ve got the economies of scale in our favor? So a bit prices are going down and then they’re a little bit easier to implement and integrate into an existing, operation. [00:29:22] Chris Wall: Yeah, I think you’re right. I think that the prices are going down. [00:29:25] They’re becoming easier to implement. Factories are being built from the ground up with these technologies in mind. People are being trained when they start out at a factory on how to use these rather than resenting that their job was replaced by 1 of them. So I think it’s a different mentality and mindset. [00:29:42] Ultimately robots, robotics or capital. Insofar as we have liquid capital markets that can provide money to companies to purchase the robots and thereby add productivity, there’ll be a smaller and smaller, maybe percentage wise, less work will be done by humans, but that will, that work will be higher skilled. [00:30:02] From a labor perspective, my suspicion is that we’re going to see the salaries of people working alongside the robots go up. As the robot is going to cost the same amount of money in maintenance, repair, acquisition, electricity, whether it’s. Massively productive, the robot does not ask for a bonus, right? [00:30:20] Little polishing of a, with a cloth or something like that. But and ultimately, when you look at technical innovation. 70 percent of the value of technical innovation is historically captured by labor. So the more technical innovation, the more capital investment into robotics, the more you will have the ability to pay people in the labor sector. Higher wages. The more that will drive training, the more that will bring people into it. Yeah, I think that if there is going to be a honest loss in manufacturing, it’s going to first be marked by training upskilling and by increased wages and in manufacturing and labor markets. [00:30:55] Rodney Apple: Well, Chris, what about let’s go back to tariffs. We know that a lot of this equipment material handling equipment robotics automation equipment is made in Asia. Do you see any challenges there? There’s this acceleration to adaption of robotics and automation, but if if those products or that equipment is hit with terrorist, do you think that may slow down? [00:31:21] That’s. A double edged sword. Is that the right term? [00:31:24] Chris Wall: You never, if you think about economic, if you think about the global economy, the national economy and your local economy as a really complex series of relationships, you don’t make a change. It’s like a huge math equation. [00:31:37] You don’t make a change on one side of the equation without making a change on the other side of the equation, right? There’s always two sides to it. There will be some having tariffs on the capital equipment will be expensive. This sort of brings about the part, should we be imposing tariffs on things that make us more productive as a country? [00:31:55] And I was speaking with with an economist who was mentioning that some countries, like in China, they tax unfinished goods at a very low rate, and then progressively, as it gets more finished, They have a higher import duties. Basically, they want to import raw materials and they don’t want to import finished goods. [00:32:13] This is 1 example of a tariff strategy. That is designed to encourage economic growth. You could really make a case for not having tariffs on the things that make us more productive. There are U. S. robotics manufacturers. There are European robotics manufacturers. I think the, one of the biggest in the world, KUKA, the Germans that have those orange robotic arms, they were bought by a Chinese company, but I think they were sold back. [00:32:36] I’m not exactly sure why that happened. Could we make robots in the U S sure. Would there be demand for them? Sure. Just in the defense industry. The defense industry tends to be very controlled in how things are made, where they’re sourced, where the origins are from, who participated in the labor. [00:32:52] And similar, you could imagine that people would not want to be manufacturing advanced defense systems using robots at software written in another country. So maybe we start doing some of that for just for defense here in the U. S. [00:33:05] Rodney Apple: Last question, Chris. And this is really more just. Predictions, I like to think in things of there’s, you mentioned 2 sides, right? There’s winners and there’s losers. And if we don’t want to cover this question to, by the way, we can’t and it’s just maybe winners and losers is a. Tough term, but some are going to gain some are going to lose. [00:33:25] Right? And is there anything you want to speak to on that? [00:33:28] Chris Wall: It’s hard to determine who will win and who will lose. In the short term, we’re likely to see all of our costs go up and that isn’t just for in the U. S. that is also in other countries as everybody’s having the same reaction to to massive Chinese exports. [00:33:45] The Chinese are trying to export their way out of a problem that was born out of their own industrial policy. And when everybody is saying, wow, China’s performing so well in the, late nineties, early two thousands times like that was because their own internal demand was so unmet. [00:33:59] Anything they could make, they could sell within their own country, like cars. You could make 4. 9M cars a year and have all the demand be soaked up by internal demand. That isn’t the case anymore. So that there’s there’s going to be in general more trying to export their way out of the overcapacity that they’ve generated. [00:34:17] This is going to generate pain in in countries in the West that have manufacturing capacity because we’re going to have to compete in places like Latin America and Africa with much lower cost goods. If you, today, I was just in South America this past summer it was there winter, but in August, and over 50 percent of the cars I saw in Chile are now Chinese made, and unlike the ones from 10, 20 years ago, they’re nice, they run well, they’re decently put together, the materials are good. [00:34:48] It’s not a Rolls Royce or like a BMW, but it’s pretty nice, and they’ll probably be making BMW grade stuff pretty soon themselves. So that we’re going to benefit from some people benefit from low goods, low cost goods and a lower price. Some people will have to compete with that. So you could say that in the short to medium term, established manufacturers competing against China are going to suffer if the tariffs get put up. [00:35:13] Will that protect us? It will protect them to some extent, but then all that’s going to do is going to drive up prices for consumers. So you’ve got a winners and losers on each side. That being said, the consumers are themselves the labor at the factories that do the manufacturing. If their jobs go away, does it matter if goods are a little bit cheaper, a little bit more expensive if they’re not buying them because they don’t have a job. [00:35:35] Probably not. I think it’s going to be a mixed bag for a lot of people. It’ll just be an adjustment. [00:35:40] Rodney Apple: Excellent. That’s Great insights, great perspectives. Is there any other question you wanted to ask? [00:35:45] Chris Wall: The question I would like to ask is, if you were, if you’re speaking to a 20 year old who is studying logistics and supply chain right now and looking into a career, what are the areas that you would guide them to? [00:36:01] Rodney Apple: That’s a great question. And before I answer that, I think it’s important just to, to highlight. [00:36:07] 20 some years ago, like, when I got into supply chain recruitment 25 years ago, there were maybe 6 universities that taught supply chain logistics related courses, Penn State, U. T. Michigan State, the usual suspects we counted recently. I think it was over 125 universities are offering supply chain or related programs. [00:36:28] I won’t get into this, the macro trends that have gone on. But right now we’re seeing the graduation placement rates have been going down. So we’re starting to pump enough people into the workforce at that entry, junior level to satisfy those buyer planner analyst type roles. [00:36:48] So no longer is it a 100 percent safe bet. I’m going to get. Place, I’m going to have multiple offers right away. Now, if you come from the top tier schools, that’s pretty much a given you’re getting recruited often in your sophomore year from, Michigan State by, of course, the usual suspects, the larger corporations, but I think it’s really important. [00:37:07] If I had to advise 1 thing, it’s network early and often get your LinkedIn profile set up. When you get into college and start building your network, start with alumni from your school, those that have graduated ahead of you working in companies that you may want to work in, or types of roles and jobs that you may want to work in, or definitely the people that adds similar degree programs and supply chain, because you’re going to need to lean on that network and not just, the piece of paper that you walk away from in terms of that, that diploma or, And whatnot, so that’s going to be important as far as the functional areas. [00:37:42] I think they’re all going to be strong. We’re still going to need people. Procurement sourcing, clearly, anytime big policy changes, they’re, they’re going to swing 1 way or another. It’s that’s always going to be a big need. It’s a people supply chain to people business. [00:37:57] We’re always going to need to distribute transport goods. We’re going to need to forecast and plan the analytics roles Years ago, it was tough to find people with the hard skills 20 years ago to go into these analyst roles, it’s been inverted a bit to where now folks are coming out they’re pretty solid in the analytics and the hard skills where they’re lacking is in the soft skills. So focus on the soft skills. You must be able to communicate convey your thoughts, lead and influence change and things like that. Developing soft skills, and if you want to be a leader, it’s critical. [00:38:30] And if you want to move up, it’s critical. Stay on top of the hard skills. But focus on the soft skills. You’re not going to get too far without them and and focus on the network. Those are the 2 big things I would. The 3rd thing would be, having a mentor and a coach do that early, do that often throughout your career. [00:38:46] Even if you get to where you’re at, Chris, or CEO of a company, it’s still important to have those advisors you can lean on. So that’s what I would offer up. [00:38:53] Chris Wall: 1 thing that being a CEO of your own company teaches you is that everybody has a boss whether it be your investors, whether it be your board and that without a mentor, Life is just a long, it’s just so hard to figure stuff out. [00:39:06] The mentorship thing is key. Are there any geographies that you would recommend that people look into? If you’re, very often after graduating college, people will, are open to moving to new parts of the country to look for work and to have new experiences, meet new people. [00:39:23] Rodney Apple: Great question I would say, clearly the big metropolitan areas are going to have the abundance of jobs. So you’re Atlanta’s. It’s a big supply chain hub. Of course, Chicago and Dallas are major logistics hubs as you’re aware of there’s, there’s plenty to go around throughout the United States. So I think just try not to be locked into 1 area. Be as mobile as you possibly can. [00:39:49] I would go anywhere when I was coming out of school at 22. I moved in various cities. If my employer asked me to move, I didn’t even think about it. Nowadays, people are a lot more reluctant, but the cost of living and housing and all that is a lot more expensive too. So you can’t blame them. But I think just being the more mobile you are, the more doors that you’ll have to open up. [00:40:09] It’s hard to go wrong in a big Metro city where there’s abundance of operations and companies headquarters, you get out into smaller rural towns. You’re not going to have as many opportunities. [00:40:21] Chris Wall: It reminds me about when I left when I left when I was in school, somebody said, Everybody should live in New York once, but leave before it makes them hard. Everybody should live in San Francisco once, but leave before it makes them soft. [00:40:34] Rodney Apple: I love that. . Chris, it’s been a pleasure having you on the supply chain careers podcast. [00:40:40] We really do appreciate all the insights and perspectives you’ve shared on global trade and. What we might be looking at coming in 2025 with with the Trump administration back in office, and we know tariffs are going to be something that’s very big and very visible as we have already heard in the news waves already since he was elected. [00:41:00] We appreciate everything you’ve shared and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on this as we move further ahead into the new year. So thanks again for joining us Chris. [00:41:09] Chris Wall: Rodney, thanks so much for having me. It’s been really interesting and I’m going to also be looking towards towards what’s happening. [00:41:15] If you ever want to do this, I don’t know if you want to do a follow up 6 months or a year down the line to see what’s changed and how things are affected that can be done. But Rodney, thanks so much for having me. It’s been really interesting and informative to me as well. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.Need help hiring Supply Chain Leaders?
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